![]() ![]() That’s how good Winston’s been outside of those 24 interceptions plays. Yet, despite that 95.4-point gap between Winston and Rodgers on those interception plays, the former - Winston - has still produced more total expected points this season. His two interceptions have cost the Packers only 11.5 expected points. On the other end of the spectrum, you have Aaron Rodgers. Baker Mayfield is next on the list with 79.6 expected points lost via interception. Quantity is obviously Jameis’ problem, and those 24 interceptions have cost the Bucs 106.9 expected points in total. His interceptions are no more damaging than, say, Tom Brady’s interceptions. Now, the average interception costs an NFL team about 4.41 points, and Jameis is right around that league average at 4.6, so quality obviously isn’t a problem. Winston is also in a league of his own when it comes to bad plays. Only three other quarterbacks have even passed the 100-point mark this season: Dak Prescott (154.5), Russell Wilson (120.6) and Stafford (100.1).īut then there’s the flip side. That ranks first in the league by a comfortable margin. In total, Winston has added 175.2 total points on completed air yards alone. Over 82% of his passing EPA has come after the ball gets into his receiver’s hands, while only 52.8% of Winston’s passing EPA has come after the catch, which ranks second lowest behind Matthew Stafford. But a lot of Jackson’s production in the passing game has come after the catch. Only one healthy starting quarterback has averaged more, and that’s the MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. In 2019, his completed passes have averaged 1.11 expected points added. So just how good is Winston’s good? In short, his good has been among the league’s best. Because Tampa Bay is a small market team that hasn’t been very good - mostly because of what has been an inept defense in past years - you don’t really hear about Winston’s good plays. There have been plenty of quarterbacks who have thrown a lot of interceptions but have done enough good to make up for it. I just don’t know how useful it is to say interceptions are bad and if you throw a lot of them you are a bad quarterback. In fact, I’d argue that teams without one of those elite quarterbacks are better off with a quarterback like Winston.īut the interceptions! They are bad and nobody in the league has thrown more of them this season … by a wide margin. But unless you are one of the teams with one of the four or five quarterbacks capable of being great consistently, volatility shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker. Winston might be the most volatile quarterback in NFL history, and volatility at the quarterback position is typically seen as a bad thing. But his odds of producing enough great seasons (one or two over the course of a standard contract ought to do the trick) to justify such a deal are shorter than those of the other players who will be available this offseason, whether through the draft, free agency or trade. The odds that he develops into a consistently great quarterback are long. Now, I don’t think signing Winston to a long-term deal is a sure thing. So here I am, once again, arguing that Winston is a quarterback worth investing in. These aren’t plays that bad quarterbacks make, and Winston makes them on a routine basis. ![]()
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